After what felt like a long frustrating couple of weeks post the signing of Chris Wood, the persistence of Newcastle United’s new owners paid off with a statement signing.
As one of the best midfielders in Ligue 1 and one of the most sought after talents in Europe – Arsenal and Juventus were both heavily linked – Bruno Guimarães, the Brazilian International signed for a reported fee in the region of £33 million.
While the four other players that joined Eddie Howe’s squad in January added much-needed quality, it is Guimarães who has the potential to transform our team.
The deal represents a huge coup and there will be teams (and agents) across Europe taking note of the ambition on Tyneside. Considering this has been done while we sit in the relegation zone, it is exciting to imagine what could be ahead this summer if we stay up.
Style of play
The sea of green above underlines the ability of Bruno Guimarães. He will immediately come into our team and be one of our most important players. The Brazilian will have a transformative impact, fitting perfectly into the way Eddie Howe wants to play football.
His main strength is his ability to progress the ball. This has been an issue for us this season, with a reliance on Jonjo Shelvey. Kieran Trippier has helped improve our build-up play in recent weeks, but Guimarães will become our chief playmaker.
He averages 7.49 progressive passes and 8.13 progressive carries per ninety minutes. This underlines his ability to play dangerous forward passes and his ability to dribble with the ball. He is capable of motoring into space and then picking the right pass to launch an attack. Shelvey is a great passer of the ball, but he isn’t very dynamic. Guimarães will be a huge upgrade.
There is a feeling that this could be our most exciting midfield signing since Yohan Cabaye. The Frenchman used to speak about how he likes to get on the ball as often as possible and dictate the tempo. This is a trait shared by Guimarães. He averages 76.15 attempted passes per game with an accuracy of 87.8%.
At Lyon, he has been frequently involved in the game, as the Ligue 1 side are dominant in possession. He won’t have as much of the ball in our team, but we will become more proficient with the ball with the Brazilian on the pitch. Howe will want to move to a more possession-based style. Guimarães will help facilitate that change.
The above graphic shows his midfielder radar from the 2021/22 Ligue 1 season. Guimarães is performing in the top 10% of midfielders in a lot of key areas. His average of 10.42 deep progressions (97th percentile), 0.2 xG assisted (94th percentile) and 0.82 xGBuildup (92nd percentile) per ninety minutes shows the value he adds to a team.
There are risks to his game, which often leads to a high turnover rate, with his season average of 2.08 per ninety minutes.
One of the most pleasing parts of the Brazilian’s game is his contributions off the ball. The above graphic shows all of Guimarães’ defensive actions this season. He gets around the pitch and is a useful player to have without the ball.
Our defence has been an issue this season and Guimarães will help us become more active without the ball. He likes to press, as shown by his average of 22.05 pressures per ninety minutes. This is an area where Jonjo Shelvey is lacking. Howe wants to press higher up the pitch and this signing will help with that.
When adjusted for possession, he averages 3.93 tackles and 2.85 interceptions per ninety minutes. This puts him in the 96th and 93rd percentiles respectively. Our passive approach in midfield has been a weakness. Guimarães will raise the standards in this area.
He is a complete midfielder, capable of adding value in both halves of the pitch. The above heat map from this season shows how he gets from box to box. He has a preference for taking up a position in the left half-space, in which he can cause problems for opposition defences. To state this again, he will be a transformative signing.
The above graphic shows the OBV (on ball value) squad comparison for Lyon in 2021/22. OBV is a model that values every contribution on the football pitch. Guimarães rates at the third-highest, underlining his influence. His risky passing style may have led to some negative contributions, but on the whole, the Brazilian impacts games positively while he is on the pitch.
Playmaker
The above shows Bruno Guimarães’ final third passes. The ones in red are completed, while the ones in yellow failed to reach their target. His long passing accuracy is currently 74.1%, showing that he finds his teammates at a good rate.
He is a forward-thinking player, who likes to inject impetus into a game. At times, he has been criticised for being too risky on the ball, but with risk comes a high reward. Guimarães is one of the best at progressing the ball into the final third across Europe.
In Ligue 1 this season, he is averaging 8.2 passes into the final third. No player has recorded more passes into the final third than the Brazilian, with 150 in total. Only Joao Cancelo (188) and Aymeric Laporte (166) have recorded more in the Premier League.
It is perhaps unfair to compare Jonjo Shelvey to Bruno Guimarães. After all, Shelvey has been playing well under Howe and there is every chance that the pair play in the same midfield. However, Shelvey has been our chief ball-progresser and it is clear that our new signing will provide a sharp improvement.
Although their graphs look very different, it is worth saying that Guimarães has been playing in one of the best sides in Ligue 1. Lyon dominates possession, therefore some regression is expected when playing for a team in a relegation phone.
Shelvey does rank above average for deep progressions with 5.27 per ninety minutes. However, Guimarães currently dwarfs him with 10.42 per ninety minutes.
Patterns of play
The transfer window will have strengthened the squad, but there will still be weaknesses that Eddie Howe needs to protect and strengths to focus on. The signing of Kieran Trippier means we have a very good attacking right-back, so it makes sense that we will try to play a lot down that side.
To do this, it is important to be able to create space for Trippier and get the ball to him quickly when that happens.
The above image shows Guimarães in one of his favourite positions, the left half-space just inside the opposition half. He picks the ball up and quickly delivers it to the Lyon right back in acres of space.
It is a great piece of vision and skill to launch a promising attacking situation for Lyon. This is exactly the type of situation Eddie Howe would like to re-create often, with Trippier in a crossing position and Chris Wood attacking the penalty area.
The above graphic shows Bruno Guimarães picking up the ball early in the first half against PSG. He has three players around him and is under pressure having had to turn on the ball. The piece of play that follows shows what he can add to our team.
A second later, he saw the run of Lucas Paqueta and played an exceptional lofted through ball into his path. The ability to spot and then deliver the pass shows the ability that the Brazilian possesses.
Given the players we have in our squad and our preference to counter-attack, this passing ability will add a dangerous weapon to our arsenal. Allan Saint-Maximin, Miguel Almiron, Joe Willock and Callum Wilson will all thrive if this type of service is delivered regularly.
The above graphic shows the type of move that could become common with Allan Saint-Maximin. Guimarães picks up the ball inside his own half and sees the run of a team-mate moving into space.
Guimarães delivers a perfectly weighted pass through two opposition defenders, which allows his team-mate to advance and score. These are the types of runs that Saint-Maximin can now make to take advantage of his pace. If he makes them, Guimarães will find him.
Where does he fit in?
We need to wait for the end of the transfer window before predicting the thinking of Eddie Howe too much. However, he played a 4-3-3 in the last game against Leeds and this is likely to be the preferred formation moving forwards.
The three central midfielders that day were Jonjo Shelvey, Joe Willock and Joelinton. If you look at the profile of Guimarães, the player he should be replacing is Shelvey. Eddie Howe is a big fan of the 30-year-old midfielder and he has been performing well since the managerial change was made.
Joe Willock is out of form, but he showed improvement against Leeds United. He likes to make runs in behind the opposition defence and get into the area. Willock is likely to be one of the beneficiaries of this move, as he should mesh well with Guimarães.
Joelinton has been exceptional in recent weeks, but there are still some concerns about his positional discipline as a central midfielder. It could be that he is moved back into the front three in place of Ryan Fraser.
This signing gives Eddie Howe options in the middle of the park and a level of player he hasn’t previously been able to pick. It should have a transformative impact and it could lead to others raising their own games.
