Newcastle have announced their second first team summer signing, as Leicester City’s Harvey Barnes has joined the club. It has been rumbling on for a few weeks now. After their relegation, it felt inevitable that we would sign at least one player from the Foxes, due to the amount of talent that they have in their squad. The most likely would have been James Maddison, but he ended up joining Tottenham.
Instead, it looks like Eddie Howe opted to prioritise Harvey Barnes, who is a more natural fit into our 4-3-3 system than Maddison would have been. The departure of Allan Saint-Maximin has played a part in this signing, as the England international will be viewed as a replacement for the Frenchman in our squad.
Source: Statsbomb
Versatility is one of the traits that Eddie Howe looks for in potential signings. That wouldn’t have been a factor in the signing of Harvey Barnes, as he is very much a left winger. All of his minutes came in a variation of the role. He could probably play on the right, but it would negate a lot of his strengths.
Barnes is a right-footed player, with his preference to be able to cut inside from the left, as this opens up options to move the ball into dangerous areas. He likes to shoot, but he can cross and play through balls into central areas.
The biggest strength of Barnes is his output. He is a reliable source for goals and assists, as he has shown over the last few seasons.
Source: Statsbomb
Since 2019, Barnes is in the top ten for goals and assists per ninety in the Premier League. Alongside James Maddison (0.52), Barnes is the most productive player operating outside of a top six club. That is very impressive and shows the quality that he has in the final third.
Perhaps more impressively, he has averaged 0.37 expected goals (xG) + expected assists (xA) per ninety minutes. That means he is adding value with the chances he is getting and creating. He has an overperformance of 0.15 across the two metrics combined. As this sample is across 9,478 Premier League minutes, it is a noteworthy overperformance.
Is Barnes’ overperformance sustainable?
Source: Statsbomb
The above graphic shows all of Barnes’ shots since the start of the 2019/20 season. He has managed to score 34 from 28.14 xG, which shows a big overperformance. As this is a long period of time, you can argue that there is enough evidence to suggest he is a finisher who adds value to the chances he gets.
His shooting trends are interesting to note. Barnes likes to operate on the left hand side with an angle to curl to the far post. That is his trademark finish and the shot map highlights that. Although there are some shots from outside the area, it isn’t a preference of Barnes. He prefers to get inside the penalty area before striking at goal, which is underlined by average of 0.11 xG per shot.
Source: Statsbomb
Last season was Barnes’ best goal-scoring season to date, as he scored 13 times in the Premier League. Despite this, Leicester still went down. There was some big overperformance from the attacker, as he outperformed his 7.64 xG by 5.36. It could be argued that he ran a little bit hot last season.
However, when you dig deeper into Barnes shooting and finishing, it becomes clear that he is an above average finisher. The attacker adds value to the chances that come his way, with precise shooting.
Source: Statsbomb
The above graphic shows the post-shot xG (psxG) map for Barnes. This metric measures the likelihood of on-target shots resulting in goals. He averages 2.43 shots per ninety minutes and 43% find the target.
Since the start of the 2019/20 season, the former Leicester City attacker has had 110 shots on target, which have a total psxG of 33.24. This is in line with his total of 34 goals.
Whereas the xG of his chances shows overperformance, the psxG shows why that is. Barnes is a very good finisher, who adds value with his strikes at goal. The group of shots in the left half-space show one of his favourite areas, with many of these recording highly for psxG. As he is often trying to get into this shooting position, it isn’t surprising that his shots from here are dangerous.
The psxG numbers effectively rule out poor goalkeeping being a reason for Barnes’ overperformance of his xG. They show that his shots are beating the goalkeeper at the rate they should, underlining his own quality. The above video shows an array of different shooting positions and types of finish.
The most frequent one is the curling strike towards the top right corner with his right foot, but he is capable of plenty of different shots too. The goal against Chelsea shows a powerful finish with his weaker left foot, showing that he has the ability to go either way once he gets into the penalty area.
His reading of attacking situations is very impressive, especially at the speed that play develops. Barnes looks at the positioning of those around him before shooting, which leads to some powerful high finishes and other finessed low finishes. The 25-year-old doesn’t just swing a boot at the ball, which is why he can be considered an intelligent finisher.
Transition
One of Saint-Maximin’s strengths was his ball-carrying. The team will need to adapt to the different style of Barnes, as he isn’t an explosive dribbler like the man he is replacing. However, that doesn’t mean he isn’t effective in transition.
The final clip in the above shooting video shows that Barnes is a powerful runner who can beat an opposition defender. Rather than relying on skill, it is his pace and power that helps him when carrying the ball.
Source: Statsbomb
The above graphic shows the ball carries attempted by Barnes in the 2022/23 season. There aren’t a great number, as he doesn’t choose to carry the ball too often. He has a preference to pass inside and try to get in behind the opposition defence with off-the-ball runs.
That said, he did complete 79.5% of his attempted carries into the final third. This highlights that there is an intelligence to Barnes’ game. When he chooses to carry the ball, he is successful roughly 4 times out of 5. This high completion shows that when it comes to ball carrying it is quality over quantity.
The clips above clearly show what Barnes is trying to do when he gets possession of the ball. Every action he makes is to try and get the ball into a more dangerous position for the opposition team. When he chooses to carry the ball, he doesn’t often fully beat his man, but he is able to create enough space to either shoot or pass to a teammate
In comparison to Saint-Maximin, I would say that Barnes is efficient rather than explosive in transition. For Howe’s development of the team, efficiency is crucial.
Chance creation
Source: Statsbomb
Last season, Barnes scored 13 and only registered a single assist. That would make it appear that he is a goal-scorer rather than a creator, but there is always more variation in assist numbers, as it relies on others putting the chances away.
Barnes is a player that does create for his team-mates and he is most dangerous when he is operating in the left half-space. From this position, he can play dangerous passes into the centre of the penalty area.
Source: Statsbomb
The above graphic shows Barnes’ key passes and assists from the 2022/23 season. There are a lot of passes played from the left half-space and many of these are cut-backs into the middle of the area. This area has been coined the ‘Golden Zone’ by some, as this is the most common area to score from.
Source: Statsbomb
It is a similar trend in the above graphic that shows Barnes’ key passes and assists from the 2020/21 season. There seems to be a deliberate action to play cut backs into the Golden Zone and this makes him a dangerous player to defend against.
Rather than being a quality passer of the ball, Barnes is dangerous as he chooses to put the ball into the position where goals are most likely. A lot of the time, he passes blindly into this area in the hope that a team-mate can get on the end of it. On the occasions where he finds a team mate, he is able to create a quality chance.
If the rest of the players are aware of this preference, they can pre-empt Barnes and make sure they get into this position. When he plays the pass, there is then likely to be a team-mate there to shoot at goal. Joe Willock is a player that could massively benefit here.
Source: Statsbomb
Throughout his time at Leicester, Barnes wasn’t a prolific creator and he did benefit from playing alongside some very good finishers. This did bump up his assist numbers, which meant he significantly outperformed his xA numbers.
This was especially true in the 2021/22 season, when Leicester scored 9 from a total of 3.85 xG created by Barnes’ passes. Jamie Vardy scored five from 1.67 xG created by his team-mate.
It is worth saying that Leicester City’s attacks were often focused around James Maddison. The Foxes tried to get him on the ball as much as possible, which negated the creativity of others. It could be that Barnes’ xA numbers increase in a new team.
The above clips show many passages of play that feature Barnes creating chances for his team-mates. It is difficult not to be impressed by his decision making in the final third. There is a variety of passes used by the attacker, including crosses, through balls and cut backs. With a little bit of coaching on the training ground, he could improve on his creative metrics.
How will the move to Newcastle impact Barnes’ production?
In theory, moving from a relegated team to a Champions League team should increase a player’s production levels. It isn’t always that simple though.
Source: Statsbomb
Barnes will be hoping that is the case, even though Leicester scored 51 goals. That was more than any other team in the bottom half. A quick look at the above graphic shows that Newcastle were a much more accomplished attacking team last season.
They averaged more shots and achieved a higher xG. If they maintain those numbers this season, Barnes should be a beneficiary as he will be at the sharp end of the attacks.
The major difference between Leicester and Newcastle is that the Foxes were mainly a counter attacking team. Meanwhile, we were a high pressing team. For Leicester, Barnes would pick up the ball in deep areas and there would be a great distance to goal. If he clicks in the high pressing system, he should be getting the ball in more advanced areas and that will only benefit him.
Source: Statsbomb
The above graphic underlines the difference without the ball. It is clear that where Newcastle are an active high pressing team, Leicester were not. They preferred to sit deep and get numbers behind the ball.
As suggested above, this should benefit Barnes. He will be receiving the ball higher up the pitch and when the opposition team isn’t well set. It may take a period of adjustment, but over time, Barnes’ skill set should thrive in Howe’s system.
Source: Statsbomb
Leicester’s style was designed to draw the opposition out, before they won the ball back. This would mean there was space in behind for their pacy attackers to run into.
Whereas, Newcastle are aggressive without the ball and press high. If they are successful in winning the ball back, there might not be space in behind, but the opposition team will not be set in their defensive structure. In theory, these are more dangerous situations than counter attacks and Barnes should benefit.
In a high pressing team, it is important that attackers take the correct decision when they win the ball. This also means being unselfish if a team-mate is in a better position. Barnes tends to make the correct decision when he is in the final third. His assist numbers should trend upwards on Tyneside.
Defensive work rate
The discussion of Newcastle’s high press brings us on nicely to Barnes’ own defensive work rate. This has often been one of the main criticisms of Allan Saint-Maximin, as he was never a natural fit for Howe’s system.Barnes’ defensive work rate isn’t his strength, but he is an upgrade on Saint-Maximin in that department.
Source: Statsbomb
Source: Statsbomb
The above graphics show the defensive activity maps of both Saint-Maximin and Barnes. The latter had significantly more minutes, but it is clear that he was a bigger defensive presence than the man he is replacing.
Barnes averaged 13.1 pressures per ninety minutes, compared to Saint-Maximin’s lowly average of 9.42. Team structure and individual instructions are also a factor worth considering. We have already seen that Saint-Maximin didn’t produce great defensive numbers in our team. There could be an upwards trend in Barnes’ numbers when he is playing in black and white.
Source: Statsbomb
Source: Statsbomb
When you look at the times where both players won the ball back, it is clear that Barnes will be a more natural fit for our system. He was better at winning the ball back high up the pitch. Even in a high pressing team, Saint-Maximin didn’t win the ball back in the opposition half very often.
If Barnes was managing to be an active defender in the opposition half in a team that didn’t look to high press, his numbers could improve further in our team. That is an exciting prospect. Any concerns that Barnes isn’t a good fit for our system are misplaced, based on the above graphics.
