Newcastle United have announced the arrival of Sandro Tonali, who becomes the club’s first senior signing of the summer. It is a statement of intent to sign one of the key players of AC Milan, a recent winner of the Scudetto. They also reached last season’s Champions League semi-finals. Eddie Howe spoke about how we were shopping in a small pool of players and this emphasises that.
Tonali is just 23 years old. There is room for him to develop under Eddie Howe and our head coach will have ideas of where the Italian can develop further. It is encouraging that a lot of our big money signings are at that age profile, as they can develop with the club.
Source: Statsbomb
There has been a lot of discussion about Tonali’s position on social media. We know that the club are trying to sign two high calibre midfielders, with one rumoured to be a number six. Some supporters posited that the Italian would be that player. Despite a lot of comparisons made to Andrea Pirlo since his time with Brescia, that isn’t quite the profile that the 23-year-old has.
Last season, he played the majority of his minutes as a left-sided midfielder in a double pivot. AC Milan played a 4-2-3-1 formation, with Rade Krunic or Ismael Bennacer often partnering Tonali. It would be too restrictive to suggest Tonali played as a number six, as he was more like a box-to-box midfielder.
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The above graphic shows the final Serie A match of the season and this best shows Tonali’s role for AC Milan. He was the player that pushed into advanced central areas to provide support to the four attackers.
It is likely that he has been signed to play as one of the number eights in the current system. Tonali hasn’t been used as a single number six since his breakthrough at Brescia and he has developed a lot since then. Due to his eye for a forward pass and his engine, it would be a waste to restrict him to being the holding midfielder.
That all said, Howe doesn’t have a traditional number six in his system. Bruno Guimaraes has often been the central midfielder, but there is a fluidity to the system. This allows midfielders to interchange and all three do get opportunities to get forward. Tonali could play any of the three positions. The Italian international will be comfortable switching between the three roles in a match situation. There will need to be patience as he adapts to Howe’s system, as it does require a lot more high-intense running than he is used to.
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Tonali’s central role is further evidenced by the above graphic. AC Milan wanted Tonali to drop into deep and wide areas to receive the ball, in order for the full-backs to get forward. The 23-year-old is comfortable following tactical instructions, but he has the engine that allows him to get all across the pitch. That is crucial in our system and the above graphic underlines that the Italian also has this physical endurance.
Although Tonali has played a lot on the left side last season, it is more likely that he plays the right-sided role in our system. Sean Longstaff has been crucial for Eddie Howe, but Tonali is a significant upgrade. He will also be more comfortable slotting in for Guimaraes if required.
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The above radars show Tonali as a number six. It is clear that he is capable of playing the roles. Passing is one of his strengths and it isn’t surprising to see that his pass OBV (on ball value) scores highly in both seasons. There are some concerns about his low passing completion and defensive numbers, but we will analyse these later in the piece.
Source: Statsbomb
This graphic looks at Tonali as a number eight. Like the number six radar, it is obvious that Tonali is comfortable in the role. That level of tactical flexibility will have appealed to Howe, as he can play any of the three roles in the system. There are areas that he will need to work on in both roles. At St James’ Park, he will find the right coach to develop him.
Passing
Sandro Tonali will become the best passer in our midfield. He may need some time to settle, but there is no doubting that he has a level of technical ability that others in the squad don’t. The physicality and work rate of Joelinton and Joe Willock were big pluses last season. However, there was a weakness in their passing, especially against teams that set up in a deep block. Our new signing should immediately improve the team in those situations, as he can play positive passes that create openings for the team.
There is a positivity in Tonali’s passing that means he will never be among the highest for pass completion. In 2021/22, he completed 82% of his passes. This dropped to 77% in the 2022/23 season. This is a noticeable drop and worth looking further into.
Source: Statsbomb
The above graphic shows Tonali played the majority of his minutes as a right sided midfielder in the double pivot during the 2021/22 season. As we mentioned earlier, he played mostly on the left side in the 2022/23 campaign. That may seem like a minor change, but it is clear that it did impact Tonali’s passing, leading to more turnovers.
As a right-footed player on the left-side, the natural passes are into the centre. This is an area of the pitch that is more contested and therefore, more difficult to pass into. During his time as the right-sided midfielder, Tonali’s natural angles were down the line. This is one reason why the drop in success rate happened.
It is also a matter of rhythm. Tonali would have grown used to the role on the right and knew the patterns of play that suited the team. A recalibration would have been required when he switched sides.
Source: Statsbomb
The left graphic shows Tonali’s pass sonar map for the 2022/23 season, while the right graphic shows the same map for the 2021/22 season. The length of the shard shows the average pass length from that position, while the colour shows the success. The darker the colour, the more successful Tonali is with that pass.
Overall, the length of the shards hasn’t changed too much, but the direction of passes and the success rate has altered between the graphics. Tonali does seem to be a lot more comfortable on the right side, due to the natural passing angles available to him.
If as many expect, he comes into the side as the right-sided number eight in place of Longstaff, we should see Tonali’s pass success rate increase from his final season in Italy.
Source: Statsbomb
One of the traits of Tonali’s game is how he can inject pace into the game. He can progress the ball with his passing and direct running with the ball. The above graphic shows that Tonali has a greater average pass length than the rest of the midfielders. In fact, only two of the centre backs and the two goalkeepers registered a higher average in the AC Milan squad.
Tonali’s average pass length in 2022/23 was 22.06m. This is greater than Bruno Guimaraes (17.64m) and Sean Longstaff (16.46m). Tonali was averaging 41.72 passes per ninety minutes last season, which shows that he was regularly involved in the play. He likes to play aggressive, long, forward passes and that does suit our style of play.
Last season, there were a number of goals that show that Eddie Howe wants the team to utilise direct attacks. Joelinton’s goal at West Ham United was one example of this, as he got on the end of Fabian Schar’s long pass. Meanwhile, Joe WIllock got through and scored against Southampton away from home, with Kieran Trippier getting the assist this time. Both of these were launched on the right side of our pitch. Tonali would fit in very nicely there.
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If Tonali does come in as the right sided number eight, he will be needing to utilise the cross-field ball on occasion. Due to the way we build-up, a quick switch of play can create an overload and help us breakdown opposition teams. The switch from right to left is one of the better build-up approaches for us, as we often have pace on the left wing, in the likes of Willock, Joelinton, Gordon or Saint-Maximin.
The above graphic shows Tonali completed this ball often during the 2021/22 season. There is a lot of ambition in the length and direction he plays that ball. It is likely we will see this frequently should he take up the right sided role in our team.
Source: Statsbomb
Another reason for Tonali’s drop in pass completion can be explained by a chance in AC Milan’s style. Their number of direct attacks increased in the 2022/23 season, as they developed more into a counter attacking team. This change in style means that there was a tactical requirement for the midfielders to play riskier forward passes. This suits Tonali, but a natural outcome would be a fall in his pass completion.
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One benefit of Tonali’s change to the left side was an increase in his productivity in the final third. In Serie A, he registered 48 key passes and a further six assists. This shows the quality he carries in the final third and underlines why it would be a waste to mis-profile him as a number six.
The above graphic shows Tonali creating shooting opportunities from deep and across the pitch. It is clear that he had a fluid tactical role, which allowed him to roam across to the right side when it was appropriate.
Source: Statsbomb
Looking back to the 2021/22 season, Tonali was much more regimented in his final third movements. The majority of his key passes came on the right side, but he only registered two assists. It could be that AC Milan were a lot more predictable in the previous season. The move to a more chaotic formation may have made the movements of the players more difficult to predict and contain.
Interestingly, the xG created by Tonali was more in 2021/22 (4.31) than it was in 2022/23 (4.01), despite the huge difference in the number of assists. That does bode well for us if we utilise Tonali in our right number eight role.
In the area indicated by the green box, Tonali was very active. A number of the passes from this area were crosses into the penalty area for the forwards to attack. This is interesting, as it is an area that we like to cross. It is an option in one of our attacking patterns. When the winger overlaps Kieran Trippier, space is created in this area and the right sided number eight can pull across to deliver a cross.
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Last season, we attempted this pass 56 times and it only resulted in a direct shot on seven occasions. None of these were scored. However, it is clearly one of the key approaches to goal, especially against a side operating with a deep block.
The late change of anticipated crossing angles can catch an opposition defence off guard and result in a high-quality opportunity. As we face more teams in a deep block, it is important that we improve our patterns of play.
It was used to great effect against Fulham. In the above video, you can see that Jacob Murphy and Kieran Trippier exchange passes. Their movements create an overload on the right flank and Fulham are concerned about letting Murphy get the ball on the touchline. This creates a lot of space for Longstaff, who can deliver the ball to the back post. Although the delivery isn’t great, Callum Wilson reacts well and gets the ball back to Alexander Isak for a simple finish.
There is no doubt that Tonali would provide a significant upgrade to Longstaff in this particular pattern of play. Longstaff does look awkward crossing at times. He would much rather be bursting into the box to attack the ball. Whereas Tonali is more comfortable operating on the edge of the box to offer this crossing option.
The above video shows some examples of Tonali in this area that resulted in shots, two of which were goals. It is encouraging that he has managed to get two assists from this situation, considering his team aren’t even trying to perform a pattern of play to create these openings. The video also shows the different techniques Tonali uses when crossing the ball. He can put whip on a cross, while he can also put backspin on the ball to make it deviate.
It is clear from the above video that Tonali is capable of playing a number of different passes. His long passing quality is evident in a couple of the clips. That will suit us well, as alluded to above. Howe likes the team to play vertically at times, due to the pace we have in the attack.
One of the most impressive characteristics of his game is his movement off the ball. Tonali has an excellent reading of the game, which sees him make third man runs into pockets of space. He also has the technical ability to play passing sequences in tight spaces with team-mates.
Tonali is unselfish in the final third, often choosing to play a team-mate in if they are in a better goal-scoring position. There aren’t many examples of down-the-side passes that our players utilise a lot, but that is likely due to the role he is playing for Milan. The Italian international has a lot of ability on the ball and will immediately raise the passing qualities of our team.
Set pieces
During the Under-21 European Championships, it has been Tonali’s set piece delivery that has caught the eye. He has two assists from set pieces in two matches. Many suggested that he would be taking over set piece duties on Tyneside.
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The above graphic shows that AC Milan’s set piece xG was 0.27, which lags behind ours (0.49). Trippier can feel unfortunate not to have got more assists from set pieces last season as our xG ranks in the 100th percentile.
Tonali was the best set piece taker at AC Milan, creating 0.06 xG per ninety minutes. This was the highest of any player in the squad. He will provide an excellent option for us, but he won’t immediately take over set piece duties.
Source: Statsbomb
The above graphic shows that we led the Premier League in set piece xG per ninety minutes and xG created per set piece. It is unfortunate we didn’t score more from set pieces, but there is an element of luck needed with set pieces. The chances created are normally lower quality chances.
The issue we had was with the finishing, rather than the quality of delivery, as can be seen in the charts above.
Tonali’s arrival will provide a different option from Trippier and allow the team to rotate the takers, even if the right-back will take the majority. This will make us less predictable, while competition normally leads to increased levels.
Ball carrying
Passing is one way to progress the ball for a midfielder. Tonali’s long pass average shows he wants to move the ball forward quickly. The Italian also enjoys running with the ball and bursting past opposition players. This makes him the perfect midfielder for us, as he carries this dual ability. Bruno Guimaraes is our current best midfielder and he can also do both.
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The above graphic shows all of Tonali’s carries. It shows how comfortable he is at carrying the ball, while it is another example of the energy to his game. In the role he played for Milan, he was given the licence to roam all across the pitch.
A lot of midfielders like to run with the ball, but it is important that the player can keep hold of the ball when they choose to do this. Tonali’s success rate ranks him as a very good ball carrier. He carries the ball 34.08 times per ninety minutes with a 95% success rate with an average length of 5.35m.
Tonali doesn’t like to go for long runs, instead he often bursts past a player or into a pocket of space before releasing the ball. This injects pace into the game and puts his team in a positive attacking situation.
Source: Statsbomb
The above graphic narrows down Tonali’s carries to show the ones he attempted under pressure. These are the more difficult ones to complete and midfielders that excel in these are considered ‘press-resistent’. In our current squad, Bruno is the most press resistant and that is why he is often in the deeper role collecting the ball from the defence.
Tonali attempted 281 carries under pressure and completed 86.5% of these. That is an impressive ratio and shows that the Italian can be considered press-resistant. In the Premier League, most teams try to be aggressive in the middle of the park, therefore this quality is important.
The above video shows some examples of Tonali’s ball carrying. His pace and fluency on the ball immediately stands out. He has a good appreciation of space and the direction of travel he needs to go in. The Italian has good pace on the dribble, which makes him difficult to stop once he gets into stride.
Players can go down blind alleys at times, but it is evident how frequently Tonali scans the play ahead of him. This helps him move into the pockets of space and make the correct decision. There are a couple of times in the video where he uses the outside of his boot to move beyond an opposition defender. That level of technical ability under pressure allows him to stand out.
Pressing
If any player is going to succeed in Eddie Howe’s Newcastle team, they need to be active out of possession and have a good understanding of the press. Each side’s pressing triggers are different. Tonali will need time to learn these, but he should have no issue fitting into the style.
In the carrying video above, the final example shows Tonali’s excellent reading of the game. He can see the loose ball and he is quick to intercept. He then bursts into space and releases the ball to put AC Milan into a promising attacking position. It will be periods of play like this one that convinced Howe that this was the right midfielder for his system.
Source: Statsbomb
The above radars show the defensive style of both AC Milan and Newcastle. They are remarkably similar, which shows that Tonali should have no issues bedding into our system.
One of the big issues with our structure last season was the number of counter-attacking shots we conceded (1 per 90 minutes). These are normally higher-quality chances, due to the space in the defensive third. Liverpool and Arsenal at home showed the vulnerability we had against the better teams, as they could take advantage of the lack of pace in our back line.
The mobility and pace that Tonali has should improve the defensive contribution of our midfield. In the coming months, we ideally need to add pace to our defence, but this signing will help to improve this weakness.
Source: Statsbomb
Source: Statsbomb
The above graphics show the defensive activity of AC Milan in the 2021/22 and 2022/23 seasons. If there are any takeaways, it is that the pressing triggers fell back from their title-winning season.
There are a number of reasons why this may have happened. The most obvious one is confidence. AC Milan were the best team in the league in the 2021/22 season and that gives the players a lot of confidence. They are happier to push up the pitch to try to win the ball back, as they believe they are going to win the game.
As with anything in life, if you aren’t at your fluent best and confidence falls, you become more reserved in your approach.
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Now, we are going to take a closer look at Tonali’s own contribution without the ball. There are some common themes across both seasons, but also some notable differences. The above graphic shows the 2021/22 season. This will encourage Eddie Howe.
Tonali is capable of getting across the middle third and being an active defensive contributor. His number of pressures is very impressive, averaging 18.6 pressures per ninety minutes. The 54 fouls show that Tonali has an appreciation of breaking up the game too and many of these would have been tactical fouls. This is a big part of how Howe wants his midfield to operate.
Source: Statsbomb
The above graphic shows the defensive activity graphic from the 2022/23 season. The main difference is how his defensive contributions are focused on the left side. Tonali can be more disciplined in his defensive positioning.
The average of 16.6 pressures per ninety minutes is more or less consistent with the previous season. Looking at this contribution across two seasons, Tonali looks a great fit for our physical system, even if he will need time to adapt to it.
Goal-scoring
To start with, Sandro Tonali is not going to be a prolific goal-scorer in our team. That isn’t his main role, but like with Bruno Guimaraes, we may be surprised at the output we can get from him.
The above video shows some examples of goals he has scored for AC Milan and there are two key takeaways. The first is his desire to get into the box to offer another attacking option. If he is one of the number eights in our team, it is important that he does this regularly.
The second is the goal against Atalanta. This shows Tonali press high up the pitch without much support. He wins the ball and then has the composure to score. As we like to win the ball high up the pitch, this is very encouraging.
Where will he fit in?
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Initially, it was thought that Sandro Tonali would be signed as a number six. However, a closer look at his radar compared to Bruno Guimaraes shows that this is unlikely to be the case. The main difference is the line-breaking passes. This is key to our deep-lying role and Bruno averages nearly two more than Tonali per ninety minutes.
Tonali could improve his numbers if he played in our team in that role, but Bruno Guimaraes has proven he is one of the best midfielders in the Premier League. It would take a special player to displace him from that role, even if the Brazilian has the desire to play further forward.
That all said, Tonali will be the player most likely to rotate with Bruno, as he could perform the role. Further to that, the fluidity of the system mean that we could see the pair rotate roles during a game.
Source: Statsbomb
Without seeing Tonali in a Newcastle shirt, we can predict that he is being signed as an upgrade for Longstaff. The above graphic doesn’t show clearly why he will be an upgrade, but it is worth remembering that a lot of these stats are heavily influenced by the team style and role. The xG assisted shows why Tonali would be a big upgrade, as he will add creativity to our midfield. This has been a weakness of ours, especially against deep blocks.
Tonali will be a huge technical upgrade. He will be able to inject pace and quality to our build-up play. The physical markers, such as counterpressures, pressures, tackles and interceptions will likely improve in our system. As analysed above, Tonali is an active defensive presence in the Milan team.
As with any transfer, there is an element of risk. There are on and off-field factors that can’t be predicted. Very few Italians tend to leave Serie A for the Premier League, therefore there will be a question mark about how quickly the Italian international will adapt. However, based on the analysis done above, we can see why Tonali has been signed.
The Italian international will raise the technical levels of this team and he has the physical attributes to adapt to our system.
