A geordie lad, living every geordie’s dream.
When Newcastle United’s takeover was announced on 7 October 2021, Burn could reasonably have expected his chances of representing his boyhood club to have decreased.
Aged 29, they had already been slim. Yet 116 days later, work took him to Tyneside.
In 2023/23 so far Burn has found himself a virtual ever-present in the Premier League’s leanest defence. 22 matches, a dozen clean sheets and just 13 conceded. The majority of Burn’s appearances have come at left-back.
Time and again, supporters wait for the game. The one that sees Burn exposed, made to look like the round peg in a square hole that surely he is. But largely it has not happened. Fluke? He might be from Blyth, but can anybody beat Dan Burn?
WyAyeScout will use the space below to peek behind the curtain.
Note this piece is based on Premier League matches only. Unless stated otherwise, figures are taken from WyScout and are per 90 minutes averages.
Newcastle’s premier left-back?
Most – probably, given his modesty, even Burn himself – expected Sven Botman’s £35 million summer arrival from Lille to signal Burn’s demotion from ‘starter’ to ‘squad player.’
And most – again, perhaps even the man himself – would have felt that about right.
But Eddie Howe is conservative with a lowercase ‘c’. If a player is performing in a spot, if the team is performing as a whole, he rarely tinkers.
See, for example, Bruno Guimaraes: his first six United appearances totalled 44 minutes. Only illness saw the Jonjo-Joe-Joe combination broken.
And so Burn lined up a centre-back in 2022/23’s opening-day victory over Nottingham Forest.
Next a jaunt to Brighton, Burn’s former employer. Matt Targett’s leg died, Burn slid to the left, and Botman entered back and centre. United have not even glanced briefly over their shoulder.
Last season, after joining from Aston Villa in January 2022, Targett played 1582 minutes for United at left-back. This season, following last weekend’s draw at Bournemouth, Burn has racked up 1706 minutes in the same position (Burn’s appearances at centre-back have been excluded).
Prime time to draw some comparisons then.
Defending
Let’s begin with the obvious. The butter and bread.
No prizes for guessing who dominates aerially. BDB comes out on top, winning 2.85 aerial duels compared with Targett’s 1.25 (although note those figures include all aerial duels).
On pure defensive battles (both on the deck and off it), Targett (3.98 at a win percentage of 66.04%) takes the spoils over Burn (2.64 at 50%).
Note though that a defensive duel is pretty broadly defined. Essentially, it covers any defensive attempt to dispossess an opponent in order to halt a progressing attack.
For example, in United’s draw with West Ham on 4 February 2023, Burn technically lost both of his defensive duels simply by virtue of Jarod Bowen getting his crosses into the box.
But actually both times, Burn showed Bowen onto his weaker right foot, and so arguably achieved his desired outcome (albeit that it was Burn’s sloppy pass that saw Joelinton dispossessed and lead to the second cross).
What about the lesser-spotted slide tackle? This dwindling species looks great, drawing a visceral roar if successful. But in the #moderngame is deemed risky.
Burn rarely goes to ground, attempting just 0.26 to Targett’s 0.91. Given Burn’s size, the fact that he prefers to stay on two feet is not particularly surprising, although interestingly his win ratio is the higher (60% v 56.25%).
The numbers when it comes to reading the game might surprise you: Burn averages 5.49 interceptions, whereas Targett sits on 4.44.
That’s a decent gap, given that (per FBREF) in Burn’s 19 games at left-back this season, United average 51.73% possession, whereas Targett’s equivalent figure last season drops to 43%.
But as ever, context is everything. Burn tends to start from a more withdrawn position than Targett. From deeper, it is easier to anticipate what will happen next.
The StatsBomb graphic below shows where on the pitch each player makes their interceptions. True, Targett has more nearer his own goal, but given the lack of possession that is to be expected.
And Targett also has a significant cluster towards the middle of the pitch, demonstrating he tends to loiter further forward.
Burn gives away fouls more prolifically (0.84 compared to Targett’s 0.46), while Targett also comes out on top when it comes to the old fashioned clearance 2.79 to Burn’s 2.27).
Again though, United’s overall possession numbers must be considered. The more your team has the ball, the fewer opportunities for clearances.
Moving on up…
As attacking forces, neither Burn nor Targett are likely to catch the attention of the Resistance Alliance: not a goal or assist between them.
That is not massively unsurprising. Neither is, nor pretends to be, the João Cancelo or Andrew Robertson type.
And anyway, in both cases, there are logical explanations.
Of Targett’s 16 league starts last season, 13 of them came behind Allan Saint-Maximin. Almost by default, overlapping would have been minimised.
Burn similarly may avoid the overlap. While only five of his 19 starts at left-back have been behind Saint-Maximin (five draws), his attacking limitations are clear. Likewise his lack of recovery speed.
Also note that Targett took 35 corners last season (FBREF), making his returns prima facie disappointing.
In fairness though, his expected goal assists (xGA) was 1.9. Finishing then, rather than delivery, was lacking. That is borne out in the shot assist numbers: Targett averages 0.91 to Burn’s 0.16.
Burn (0.90) has more touches in the penalty area, although Targett’s figures (0.57) will be diminished by his corner duty: Burn is doing his damndest to get on the end of them.
According to Statsbomb, Targett outdoes Burn in terms of accurate passes or dribbles / carries into the final third, with 3.94 per 90 minutes to Burn’s 2.79.
He also makes on average 7.14 passes within the final third per 90 minutes, compared with Burn’s 5.35.
And even discounting Targett’s set pieces, his passing is still more adventurous. Again according to StatsBomb, Targett made 0.74 open play passes into the penalty box per 90 minutes, more than twice Burn’s output of this season (0.33 per 90 minutes).
This next one might surprise you. Burn (0.74) massively outperforms Targett (0.57)when it comes to progressive runs.
And, according to StatsBomb, from broadly the same number of carries per 90 minutes (Burn: 27.05, Targett: 30.19), Burn has a higher average carry length of 4.01 metres, to Targett’s 3.38 metres.
And there was us saying Burn was no Robertson…
That said, Targett completes more successful dribbles (0.74 to 0.32) and completes way more accurate crosses (0.63 with a 31.43% success rate) than Burn (0.11 at a 16.67%) success rate.
Again though, the latter figures for Targett are bolstered by corners, with Burn only attempting 0.63 crosses to Targett’s 1.99.
They’re on the ball
The pair’s numbers are broadly similar when it comes to surrendering possession, with Burn’s 9.49 a shade higher than Targett’s 9.67. Burn tends to cede the ball close to his own goal too, with 3.9 losses in his own half to Targett’s 3.75.
Burn completes more passes than Targett (30.01 to 24.57) at a better success rate (81.75% to 77.01%). But as flagged above, United have almost nine per cent more possession across our sample.
The graphs below, taken from StatsBomb show Burn’s passing. Clearly, a significant proportion of his successful passes travel less than 20 yards and are made either sideways (to Botman) or into the holding midfielder (largely Bruno). That lack of adventure is as to be expected.
I get by with a little help from my friends…
United under Howe are greater as a collective than the sum of their parts. They attack as a team. They defend as a team.
And Burn has had a helping hand. Howe’s favoured formation is 4-3-3.
According to FBREF of Howe’s 44 league games in charge, United have started 35 in that shape. Eight of the nine outliers came in Howe’s opening matches.
The StatsBomb graphics below show the average United’s average positions in two similar games.
The first shows Burn against Leeds on New Year’s Eve. As flagged above, he stationed himself deeper, with both left-midfielder and left-forward in relatively close proximity.
Now look at Targett in a narrow home win against Crystal Palace last April. He begins higher, almost on the half-way line.
And he is able to do so despite Saint-Maximin starting. Targett’s aptitude at left-back makes him a sturdier option, meaning Howe has less to worry about when it comes to opposition wingers.
We saw against Bournemouth last weekend the dangers of leaving Burn more exposed – both with ASM in front of him and with Joelinton at the base rather than on the left of midfield.
Burn versus Burn
Left-back is not a new position to Burn. In fact, he has the equivalent of more than 60 matches (5438 minutes) under his belt.
This season’s stint then equates to only roughly 31% of his total Premier League minutes in that spot.
With that in mind, is Burn peaking? Or is what we are seeing unsurprising?
Keep in mind that the majority of Burn’s previous minutes came for Brighton in 2020/21 (1476 minutes) and 2019/20 (2230). That side finished 15th and 16th, whereas United are pushing for a top-four spot.
That said, intriguingly Brighton did average over 52% possession across that time, a shade more than United this season.
The heat map below shows Burn’s position across his time as a top-tier left-back.
Compare that to Burn’s where he has spent his time on the left for United this season…
At first glance, it would be easier to conclude that Burn is not as adventurous.
True, he surrenders the ball more often (9.49 in 2022/23 against 8.09 across his left-back career) but some of that disparity is attributable to Newcastle’s front-foot style.
But he is also more adventurous. He has more touches in the opposition penalty area (0.9 against 0.66) and makes more progressive runs (0.89 against 0.71).
The fact he surrenders possession more frequently this season (4.08) than across his top-flight left-back career (2.91) is in part down to the fact he is trying more.
That is demonstrable through his recovery numbers. These are up generally (8.86 in 2022/23, as against 6.3 across his career), and they are also happening higher up the pitch.
Whereas across his career Burn averages 1.79 in opposition territory, he averages 1.9 in 2022/23.
Burn vs. the world
Ok, not quite all of it. Although as the only man in the squad who has to dip under the Tyne Bridge, you’d probably back him.
No, we are looking here purely at Burn against full-backs in the Big 5 mens’ leagues, as well as the Champions and Europa leagues.
Note that these figures, taken from FBREF, are across the last 365 days.
The higher the number, the better Burn’s performance.
For example, he sits in the 4th percentile for tackles, meaning that 96% of full-backs covered by the data outdo him.
Conversely, for both clearances and aerial duels won, Burn sits in the 99th percentile, making him one of the top performers.
The graph below expands on Burn’s defensive output. As you can see, he scores highly on clearances and tackles in the attacking third, where he is in the 91st percentile and 90th percentile respectively.
Burn sits comfortably in the mid-range for both shots and passes blocked, but is less adept when faced with one-on-one situations against dribblers. Again, given his stature and natural position as a centre-back, this is hardly surprising.
It will also shock no one to see the aerial numbers below. Burn is a leading light when it comes to aerial wins, with his victory percentage almost as impressive.
Finally, something quite unexpected: Burn mixes it with the very best for both touches in the attacking third and in the opposition penalty area.
So can you ever, ever, beat Dan Burn?
Well, yes. Of course you can.
But it is not easy. He, his teammates and Howe have made sure of that.
The solution is not a long-term one. No-one believes that. And the calls for Targett’s return might soon start to grow.
United’s habit of not losing is fantastic. The habit of drawing though, is starting to hamper. The question is, if Howe shifts from his conservatism, will that leave Burn exposed?
