On August 17th, 2019, Newcastle traveled to Carrow Road to take on Norwich City in Steve Bruce’s second match in charge. After losing to Arsenal on opening day, they came in as favorites against the newly-promoted side who had been thumped by Liverpool in their opener. Bruce made two changes to the side from Arsenal, bringing in Ki Sung-Yueng for Sean Longstaff and Emil Krafth for Javi Manquillo.
The game didn’t go according to plan. The home side started on the front foot and never looked like giving up control. A late consolation from Shelvey did little to mask the ugly nature of the performance, with Newcastle eventually losing by the score of 3-1.
Amongst all the negatives, Krafth looked decent enough in his debut. He seemed mobile and strong for a fullback. At the very least it seemed like he’d be someone you could depend on to be solid and steady.
Unfortunately, that didn’t end up being the case.
Krafth struggled in his first season at Newcastle. Bruce started off by playing him as a wing-back in a back 5, which didn’t suit him much. Towards the end of the campaign, he was utilised more as a make-shift centre-back, where he looked slightly more comfortable, but still not Premier League quality.
He rarely looked confident in possession and was vulnerable when attacking players tried to take him on. Sometimes he would get too tight, and other times he would give players too much room to operate.
The video clip below is an example of this; with Newcastle chasing an equaliser, Krafth chooses to try and dispossess Harry Kane and leaves space for Erik Lamela to run in behind. Despite a decent recovery run, he’s then spun around by the Argentinian who has his shot saved before Kane follows up and converts the rebound.
The numbers of his 19/20 season tell a similar story. According to FBRef, Krafth contested 1.85 dribbles per 90 and only tackled the opposition in 28.6% of these instances, meaning he was dribbled past 71.4% of the time. That put him in the 12th percentile for fullbacks in the Premier League. He also only completed 0.53 interceptions and 1.06 tackles in which his team gained possession of the ball, putting him in the 10th and 32nd percentiles, respectively. Considering Newcastle had the ball less than every other team in the league that year, those numbers look even worse when adjusted for possession.
He wasn’t any better going forward, either, with a measly 0.03 xA (expected assists) per 90. Not a lot of value was being provided with or without the ball, and thus, Krafth was something of a liability.
Below, his tackling percentage against dribblers and xA per 90 is compared with other fullbacks in the Premier League who completed at least 900 minutes (the equivalent of ten 90’s) that season. The dashed lines indicate the median (or middle-most) values. To the right of that plot is a radar that compares him to those fullbacks in six additional categories.
A few external factors need to be considered when analyzing the radar. Krafth played in a low possession side that sat deep and allowed opponents to dominate the ball. Thus, he naturally would have less pressures and touches, as well as fewer dispossessions (instances where he was dispossessed), per 90. However, the fact that he was below league average in nearly all of the categories – even those that are biased towards low possession sides such as interceptions and tackles won – shows how little he was actually accomplishing when on the field.
In the following season, he improved slightly but still fell short of league average marks in many categories. He finished in the 36th percentile for fullbacks in the percentage of dribblers tackled. For tackles won and interceptions per 90, he finished in the 48th and 61st percentiles, respectively. Once again, when you adjust these numbers, they are not very impressive as Newcastle remained a bottom 3 side in terms of possession.
New season, new manager and an unexpected opportunity
At this point, Krafth had been written off by most Newcastle fans. When the takeover finally went through in October 2021 and Eddie Howe came in as manager, he was seen as one of the first players that the club needed to get rid of in order to progress.
When Trippier signed in January, it wouldn’t have been crazy to think that Krafth had already played his last minute for the club. Now behind an England international (and seemingly Javi Manquillo who started at right back throughout December) and with only 18 months left on his contract, it looked like his time at Newcastle was over.
But when Trippier went down against Aston Villa in February, Howe surprisingly sent the Swede on as his replacement. That moment might end up being the turning point of his career on Tyneside.
In the 12 games that ensued, Krafth had, by far, his best spell in a Newcastle shirt. The team began to press much higher up the pitch, closing down the opposition and trying to force turnovers in the attacking and middle thirds. The high-intensity, detail-oriented style established by Howe brought out his best qualities. Krafth’s mobility, physicality, and energy were now on full display.
This is a simple action but shows how Krafth’s size can bother wide players, as he displaces Martinelli before winning the header. Emil won 55.6% of his aerial duels during the 2021/22 season, putting him in the 65th percentile amongst fullbacks.
He made a leap in other categories as well. Krafth completed 2.64 interceptions per 90, which placed him in the 93rd percentile. While the percentile rank won’t remain that high when the numbers are adjusted for possession, it represents significant progress.
He was also no longer hopeless in 1v1 situations. Krafth successfully tackled dribblers 53.8% of the time, putting him in the 70th percentile for fullbacks. His output going forward remained modest, however, with only 0.04 xA per 90. Newcastle definitely missed Trippier in that respect during the latter part of the campaign.
Below, his tackling percentage on dribblers and xA per 90 is once again compared to the rest of the league’s fullbacks, and to the right of that is his 21/22 season radar.
Clearly, Krafth has improved his ability to defend players that try to take him on. He keeps it simple on the ball and is rarely dispossessed, but to take another step, he needs to produce more in an attacking sense.
Like Joelinton, Krafth has altered the opinions of many Newcastle fans with his performances during the second half of the season. While he doesn’t have the technical ability of Kieran Trippier, he’s proven himself to be reliable and earned his spot in the squad for at least another year. He might even be in line for a contract extension, which would have been ridiculous to suggest six months ago.
Hopefully, he can sustain this level of performance and add a little more to his game in the final third.
