It had been weeks since Newcastle United announced the signing of Sven Botman and the Toon Army were starting to get restless.
Bids for players like Harrison and Maddison were “too low”, the rumour mill surrounding Paqueta refused to go away and despite a promise from one of our owners that “patience is a virtue”, frustration was building.
The wait was worth it.
Last week, Newcastle United made Real Sociedad striker Alexander Isak, their fourth signing of the summer for a club-record fee believed to be in the region of £60 million.
The Swede has long been spoken about as a dream signing since the takeover. After an initial enquiry about his availability was made earlier in the summer, the price quoted left little belief that we would be able to bring the 22-year-old international to St James’ Park. Thankfully, that changed.
Considered one of the most exciting strikers in Europe, the transfer represents the third milestone signing of the Staveley-led era. Although the likes of Nick Pope and Dan Burn have been valuable additions, Isak’s signing makes a statement across Europe. It is in a similar vein to the Botman and Bruno Guimaraes deals. It’s the sort of deal that makes clubs and other players take notice.
Overview
With more than 200 appearances and 80 goals in senior football for club and country already, Isak is often referred to as ‘the new Zlatan Ibrahimovic’ and Toon fans will be hoping that the young striker will also develop into an elite-level striker on Tyneside.
Due to his unique set of physical attributes, Alexander Isak has regularly been spoken about as a footballing unicorn. He is 6’4” and has plenty of technical ability, he’s quick across the ground and is an excellent carrier of the ball, his shot volume is high and he is capable of creating his own opportunities to pull the trigger.
If he’s so good, why hasn’t a Champions League club bought him?
Isak’s last two seasons have seen contrasting fortunes in front of goal from the forward which may have prevented a Champions League side from taking the plunge.
Below you can see Isak’s radar from 2021/22. Isak recorded an average of 0.35 expected goals (xG) and 0.12 expected assists (xA) per ninety minutes. This means – on average – there’s a 0.47 (or 47%) chance that he’ll provide a goal or assist within a game, which is good for a team outside of Spain’s elite teams.
So what’s the problem? Well despite good underlying xG numbers, Isak managed just 6 league goals and only 4 open play goals from a non-penalty xG of 8.7, an underperformance of nearly 5 goals from open play.
Does this mean he’s bad at finishing?
Well, this is where the plot thickens. In the 20/21 season, Isak scored 17 non-penalty goals from a total xG of 14.7. This came from an average non-penalty xG of 0.57 every ninety minutes.
Below you can see the locations of all of Isak’s shots in LaLiga from the past two seasons.
While the overall number of shots is fairly even, the average distance to the goal of each of these shots has increased.
This could be attributed to a formation change, as Sociedad started playing much more regularly with a front two. Alexander Sorloth joined and this led to Isak being able to take central positions less often. His movement was also restricted, as he couldn’t make runs across the space of the box if his partner was occupying it.
In the 2021/22 shot map you can see a group of shots on the right-hand side of the box, which are line with the penalty spot. While this isn’t a bad area from which to attempt to score, they are harder to convert than the cluster of shots within the 6-yard box from the season prior.
This is reflected in the overall xG per shot. In the 2020/21 season, Isak averaged 0.19 xG per-shot, which dropped to 0.13 x G per shot in 2021/22 – a drop of 6% per shot.
So we have one great season with some overperformance and one poorer season with some underperformance. Over the coming years, as he becomes more experienced, there is hope to find some levelling out in finishing performance and consistency in his xG.
Examples – Goals
Alexander Isak is a striker capable of a variety of goals and finishes. He can be instinctive in the box, but he is also excellent at creating his own shooting opportunities.
The video above shows Isak receiving the ball on the left flank. The percentage play would be to drive down into the space and look to cross for a teammate, as the central area is congested. Villarreal have seven defenders back.
Isak opts to run diagonally towards the box, which drags one of the defenders towards him (number 21), who he beats on the dribble leaving him just inside the penalty box.
That puts Isak in a much more threatening position, but Villarreal still have two defenders between him and the goal. There is no easy pass option for him. The forward chooses to use the defender in front of him as a guide for his shot toward goal. His shot curls beautifully into the bottom right-hand corner and as the keeper’s view is blocked, he has no chance.
The goal is one that is reminiscent of Thierry Henry. It underlines Isak’s ability to carry the ball and create a shooting opportunity for himself. The quality of the finish is outstanding given the numbers in the box.
The above video shows another goal, this time against Leganes. It is a more classic centre-forward goal, as he manages to time his run perfectly in behind the opposition defence after the Sociedad right-back played a through ball.
Although he manages to get in behind, he does have to enter the box at an angle, which leaves him with a tough chance. Many forwards would try to strike with power from here and hope it goes through the keeper.
However, Isak produces a lovely chipped finish, showing incredible composure and touch. It is a finish he is confident with, as he produced a very similar goal against Barcelona in his final game in Spain.
It is important that Isak can offer a threat in behind. Due to his pace and reading of the game, he does. Calum Wilson can be very predictable to play against, as he is always looking to make runs like this. Isak is a little more versatile, as he can drop deeper, into wide areas or make the same runs behind.
The final goal we will look at is one against Celta Vigo. This shows the value of Isak in the build-up play. In the above graphic, he has dropped deep, which has dragged a defender with him and created space for midfield runners to move into.
One of his teammates makes a great run into the space on the left wing with a defender going with him. The defender can be criticised for dropping with the runner, as he is leaving the defensive line, but the uncertainty being caused by Isak vacating his position has caused this.
The defence is back peddling and there looks to be a straightforward ball on to the Sociedad player about to enter the box. Isak is by the referee and trying to join the attack.
The Sociedad player with the ball ends up playing a vertical through ball to the team-mate in the centre. The shooting angle for this player is now restricted, but he has dragged his marker with him to the left-hand side of the box, leaving the space wide open for Isak to move into.
The Sociedad attacker (number 11) managed to squeeze a ball across into the penalty area after the keeper closes him down. This leaves an easy task of putting the ball into the net for Isak.
This goal shows Isak’s intelligence to drop into deeper areas and create a promising situation for his team. However, he is not happy at that being the end of his involvement. He sprints up to join the attack and manages to read where to be in order to get a chance. On other occasions, he wouldn’t have received the ball, but this is his reward for taking the gamble. It is excellent centre forward play.
Examples – Misses
Lots of the analytics community speak about hot streaks and periods of underperformance. There is an element of luck that always runs through finishing numbers, with confidence being a major reason for that. Sometimes there can’t be a reason attributed to it and it really is just the randomness of football.
The above shows a shot from Isak against Levante. The shot location isn’t the best, as he is just inside the box with four defenders and one of his teammates between him and the goal. However, the resulting strike shows his quality, as he manages to slam the ball through the crowd, and past the keeper, but it strikes the crossbar.
The above video shows another shot in the same game. This time, he is on the opposite side of the box and taking the shot with his right foot, curling it towards the top corner. It, again, struck the bar. Neither shot is a high-quality chance, but it shows the versatility of his finishing. One is hit hard with his left, the other is finessed with his right. Both hit the bar and with a little more luck, he would have had two excellent goals.
The next video also underlines how he needs to pull into wider areas to get his shots away, with three of his teammates taking up the central zone.
Unlike the other two misses we’ve already, this is a clearer-cut chance and one that perhaps, Isak should do better with. After setting up the move with a good pass, he receives the ball on the run in space and hits it first time, but he screws it wide.
This underlines the issue he found playing with Sorloth, as he is having to take his shots from wider areas, with more limited options open to him. If he takes an extra touch, his angle would quickly tighten. Despite him having a clear sight of the goal, the finish is a lot harder than it looks.
This is perhaps the worst of Isak’s misses. It’s a great chance with a lot of the goal to aim for in a central position. However, he scuffs his effort. To me, this looked like a player lacking in confidence, which isn’t surprising, as it was nearing the end of the season.
Isak’s strikes from range and tighter angles remained excellent throughout the campaign. However, as it developed, his finishing from the ‘easier’ chances did get worse. As a young player suffering from a lack of goals, this isn’t surprising. He also struck the woodwork on four occasions during the season.
Although a return of four non-penalty goals doesn’t look great, it can be attributed to a combination of bad luck, great defending and a drain in confidence that is natural for a player of his age. It isn’t a huge concern. With a little bit of luck, he would have gotten double figures again and at 22, he would have learned a lot from this disappointing period of form.
To my eye, he wasn’t helped by his positioning, as he often found himself in the right half of the box. His finishing was a lot better from the left side, as he could cut inside on his favoured foot. It will be interesting to see his relationship with Allan Saint-Maximin, as I could see them looking to operate in the same spaces.
Okay, so does he compare with Callum Wilson?
The above graphic shows an overlay between Callum Wilson’s 2021/22 radar and Isak’s. As this comes from the Swede’s less impressive season, it is clear to see why he has been targeted.
Isak has a higher shot volume with an average of 2.85 per ninety minutes, compared with Wilson’s 1.92. The 22-year-old is also more active in the box, with 7.19 touches compared to Wilson’s 5.15.
However, the most obvious improvement comes in the build-up of play and creativity. As good as Wilson is in the penalty box, he doesn’t offer a lot when it comes to linking the attack. He hasn’t registered an assist since the 2020/21 season.
Wilson averaged an xG assisted of 0.04, playing him in the 11th percentile among forwards. Whereas, Isak averages 0.12 xG assisted, putting him in the 70th percentile. Our attack has struggled to create chances away from home in particular and having a more complete centre forward will help a lot in fixing that issue.
The above graphic shows Isak’s more successful 2020/21 season compared with Wilson’s 2021/22 season. Eddie Howe and the board will be hoping Isak can get back to this form, with the potential to improve even further. When looking at this, it is clear the upgrade Isak would offer. The challenge will be producing these numbers in the Premier League.
Perhaps most importantly for any new striker, Isak has had a good availability record. In his last two La Liga seasons, he has featured in more than 30 matches, with 56 starts across the campaigns.
An elite dribbler and ball carrier
Isak’s ball-carrying abilities are elite. He averages 4.34 progressive carries and 1.69 successful dribbles per 90 – better than 88% of strikers – placing him among forwards when taking on his man.
This meshes in well with the rest of our team. Allan Saint-Maximin is most effective when it comes to progressing the ball through carries and dribble, but is ably supported by Bruno Guimaraes, Joe Willock, Joelinton and Miguel Almiron in this department. Eddie Howe wants the team to be confident in possession and have players capable of creating their own space on the pitch. Isak is a perfect fit for this approach.
His ability to manoeuvre the ball quickly and read the movement of opposition defenders helps him penetrate the penalty area and get shots on goal.
Added Value in Build Up
There are few criticisms of Callum Wilson. He has been an excellent striker for us and his goal record when available stands with the best in the Premier League. However, he is the focal point in our attack and less likely to drop deep in the build-up play.
This can often cause issues and prevents us from being able to overload in central areas, with a focus on attacking down the flanks. The quality of Bruno and Joelinton should mean we look to try to operate in the centre more often.
Source: Statsbomb
The left graphic above shows Isak’s ball receptions in the opposition half, while the right shows Wilson’s. The difference is clear.
Isak likes to drop deep to feel involved in the game and get involved in the build-up, while Wilson’s focus is making runs in behind the opposition. The arrival of Isak will diversify our attacking options and allow us to create more overloads centrally in the middle third.
By doing this, it could create space in wider areas for Saint-Maximin and Miguel Almiron to exploit. We saw how effective the former was against Manchester City. The addition of Isak could create similar attacking situations against lesser teams, as opposition players will be drawn in centrally.
Source: Statsbomb
The passing sonar of Isak is displayed above and Isak is active in the build-up. One of his favoured and more common passes is the forward ball into the right channel. Whether we make a signing or Almiron continues in the role, it will be interesting to see that link up.
If your centre forward can drop into the middle third and get on the ball, it does open up options, in particular for midfield runners to move into the vacated space. Joe Willock and Joelinton could both be well suited to taking advantage of this. Although Wilson is great, he often occupies the space they want to move into, which leaves limited options for them. This can lead to them moving wide and explains why we are focused on attacking down the wing.
The addition of Isak will create a lot more options in the build-up.
Defensive actions
Source: Statsbomb
Eddie Howe wants the team to be a lot more physical and have the fitness to press from the front. We saw this against Manchester City.
The above graphic showing Wilson’s defensive actions (right) is interesting. Wilson does press, but he tends to immediately from kick-off or when he senses the opportunity to score. That is where his most active zones are.
Meanwhile, Isak is younger and has more mobility. He can press across the forward line, as shown by his bigger spread of red in the left graphic.
The attack should be a lot more effective off the ball with Isak in the team, especially in wider areas. He can get across to support the winger on either side to coordinate the press. This is something Wilson struggles to do.
Although he is mobile, Isak’s pressing game is still in development. Last season, he averaged 10.4 pressures per ninety minutes, placing him in the 11th percentile among forwards. The Swede has spoken about his desire to improve here and Howe could be the coach to get that from him.
Where does he fit in?
As ever with Eddie Howe, it is expected that Isak will be eased into the team. Bruno Guimaraes and Sven Botman had at least one match on the bench before starting. Botman would probably have had more if not for injury.
The news of Wilson’s hamstring injury probably means Isak will be brought in quicker than Howe would like, as he is a much better fit for the style than Chris Wood.
It is likely that he will be used as the centre forward in a 4-3-3, the role he starred in during the 2020/21 season that saw him score 17 times.
He may be used at times on either flank or as a partner for Wilson, as he has the flexibility to play any of these roles. However, his main role will be as the lone centre forward.
